Better The Devil You Know Than The Devil You Don’t — Financial Crises between Ambiguity Aversion and Selective Perception

Together with my Ph.D. students David and Sinan, we have written an article for the second edition of the International Conference on European Integration and Sustainable Development. The article will be published in The Central European Review of Economics and Management.


During financial crises, market participants are pressurized and presumably prone to emotional biased decisions. We use the Economic Policy Uncertainty Indicator and Dow Jones Industrial Average as well as Nikkei 225 GARCH volatilities to test for ambiguity aversion and selective perception of investors. For most crises, we find a significant link between uncertainty and market volatility. However, with respect to ambiguity aversion, the causality differs between crises indicating that investors may not always be driven by uncertainty. Regarding selective perception, we find significant results for the Dot.Com and subprime crises, but not for the Japanese asset price bubble and the Asian crisis.


Peter Scholz, David Großmann & Sinan Krueckeberg (2018): Better The Devil You Know Than The Devil You Don’t — Financial Crises between Ambiguity Aversion and Selective Perception. The Central European Review of Economics and Management Vol. 2, No. 1, 155-174. Also available on SSRN.

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Seminar: Financial History, M.Sc.

This module is different: rather than proposing definite answers, in this seminar, we pose, reflect, and discuss relevant questions. Quantitative and methodological rigourous core modules are a natural and integral part of the M.Sc. Finance. But, we want to offer more for our students – we want to provide them with a holistic view on Finance. Weiterlesen

Hostile Takeovers: Are Banks Threatened by FinTechs?


FinTechs aim to revolutionize the traditional banking sector. However, it is unlikely that they will develop large disruptive potential in Germany. The New Institutional Economics helps to predict in which banking divisions FinTechs are more likely to succeed. If the start-ups are unable to build up customer confidence and to generate real added value, then it seems to be more promising to cooperate with banks than to challenge them.


Peter Scholz (2018): Hostile Takeovers: Are Banks Threatened by FinTechs? SSRN.

Link to Article

In January 2017, this article has been published with the title “Droht den Banken die
feindliche Übernahme durch FinTechs?” in the German journal Corporate Finance No.
01-02, p. 3-7. It is published on SSRN in English language with authorization of the

Privatanleger auf dem Finanzmarkt — Workshop in Frankfurt / Main

Warum legen verhältnismäßig wenige Deutsche ihr Geld in Aktien und anderen Wertpapieren an? Was müsste man tun, damit die Privatanleger ihr Verhalten verändern? Ist der Finanzmarkt schlicht zu komplex für Privatanleger?

Diesen und anderen Fragen gingen die Teilnehmer auf dem Workshop Privatanleger auf dem Finanzmarkt vom 15. bis 16. Februar in Frankfurt / Main nach.


Nach Bitcoin-Absturz: beginnt jetzt die Krypto-Konsolidierung?

In den letzten Tagen kamen die Kryptowährungen und vor allem der BitCoin nach einem Höhenflug bis $20.000 gehörig unter Druck. Wie sieht die Zukunft aus: Haben die Kryptowährungen überhaupt eine Chance sich langfristig durchzusetzen? Was muss eine erfolgreiche Kryptowährung mitbringen? Antworten auf diese Fragen finden Sie in meinem Interview mit Sebastian Leben von Börsenradio Network.

The Golden Rule of Banking: Funding Cost Risks of Bank Business Models


Together with my Ph.D. student David, we have analyzed liquidity risks and therefore finished the third article for his thesis.


The liquidity regulation of banks in Pillar 1 of the Basel framework does not consider funding cost risks of different bank business models. Therefore, we assemble a data set of balance sheet positions including maturities and use the method of Value-Liquidity-at-Risk to explore 118 European retail, wholesale, and trading banks. When examining liquidity-induced equity risks, trigged by exemplary rating shifts, we find that retail banks bear significantly lower funding cost risks than wholesale and trading banks. Consequently, a prudential regulation, which simultaneously considers the funding cost risk and the diversification of the banking system is recommended.


David Großmann & Peter Scholz (2017): The Golden Rule of Banking: Funding Cost Risks of Bank Business Models. SSRN Working Paper.

Zurück in die Zukunft mit dem „Banco-Coin“


Drohende Bankenpleiten, negative Zinsen und ungelöste Schuldenkrise: Die europäische Zentralbank hat mit der Stabilisierung unseres Finanzsystems alle Hände voll zu tun. Um eine mögliche Alternative für ein Geldsystem der Zukunft zu finden, lohnt ein Blick auf das Beste aus zwei Welten: die Vergangenheit Hamburgs mit der Mark Banco sowie die Zukunft der Crypto-Währungen.


  • Sinan Krückeberg & Peter Scholz (2017): Zurück in die Zukunft mit dem „Banco-Coin“. Jahrbuch Finanzplatz Hamburg 2017/2018, S. 56-57.

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