MFS Conference 2016: Timing Success Explained — The Fallacy of Beating Efficient Markets

From June 26th until 29th, the 23rd Annual Conference of the Multinational Finance Society takes place at Stockholm University Business School in Stockholm, Sweden. I am invited to present my new findings on timing strategies.

Abstract

According to the efficient market hypothesis (EFM), technical trading rules should not have prediction power. However, a significant number of academic studies confirm at least slight excess returns. By applying parametric and historical simulation techniques, we show the connection between timing success and statistical properties of the underlying. Therefore, we check the time series data of prior studies with respect to their statistical properties in order to explain their findings. As long as drift, volatility and autocorrelation of a time series are unpredictable, there seems to be no benefit from technical trading rules.

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